A winter cold kept me from posting the last few days, I need to be 100% when writing these things - my audience deserves the best. Not to mention, no one is reading this. Anyway, as promised here is a look at the Cubs starting rotation for 2011. I'll start with a 9 man rotation and widdle it down from there.
Carlos Zambrano - looked like he was pitching and not just throwing at the end of 2010.
Ryan Dempster - has been very consistent the past three seasons with 2.96, 3.65 and 3.85 ERA respectively
Tom Gorzelanny - Cubs would love to see him recapture 07 form (14-10 3.88)
Carlos Silva - Great results first half of 2010. Heart issues cut the season short for him. Huge contract, very inconsistent over career.
Randy Wells - Solid #5 starter on any team. Don't expect him to be anything else.
Andrew Cashner - Signing of Kerry Wood may open the door for a starting role. this guy throws in the upper 90's with a solid slider. If he can master the changeup this spring, look for him to get a shot at the SR.
Casey Coleman - Some impressive starts vs. STL & HOU to finish 2010. Relies on location with an excellent changeup.
Chris Carpenter - Fastball low to mid 90's, excellent curveball - working on changeup. great work ethic. 25 years old, spent 4 years at Kent State.
Jeff Samardzija - Now 26 years old has looked awful in the pen. Started throwing some effective splits and sliders towards tail-end of 2010 season. Has to be considered for 2011 SR based on initial investment. He has the tools, but can he put it all together?
It's hard to predict who will start or if the Cubs will get a deal done for another starter. Just like they need a legit #3 hitter in the lineup, they also need a legit #1 to lead this rotation. No idea if Brandon Webb could be that guy. Rumor has it the Cubs are pursuing him, but his velocity is way down after arm surgery. I'd like to see some young guys in the mix, along with a couple veterans, I think it's a better reflection on where the Cubs are headed as an organization. If I had to predict the rotation today it would be:
#1 Dempster - he deserves that opening day nod
#2 Zambrano - Prozac in the house
#3 Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzo will get a chance to anchor the middle of the rotation, but I think he'll be on a short leash if he does not get off to a solid start...
#4 Andrew Cashner - Why not? Give him a year of experience on a rebuilding team. If he can keep the ERA around 4.5, then I think it's great on the job training.
#5 Carlos Silva / Casey Coleman - I think Silva starts the year based on his inflated salary alone, but the oft injured big man may be in and out of the rotation. Look for Coleman to lock it up mid-June.
As for the rest, here are my predictions:
Randy Wells - Traded before spring training
Chris Carpenter - One more year as starter in AAA
Jeff Samardzija - see above (the cubs would love nothing more than to see him bust out in 2011, but he still needs to master his off-speed stuff.)
Well, that's all I got for today. The big news around town is who will be Santo's replacement. My vote would be for Sutcliffe, who seems like a good guy.
Great stuff, Mike.
ReplyDeleteAs for the rotation, I agree that young arms can make for a very special rotation, but they can also make for a totally mediocre one. There are definitely some good things happening with the youngsters, but I don't think we can really know what we have just yet.
As to the booth, I'm sure it's a long shot, but I'd love to see the Cubbies steal Grace from the D-Backs to fill Ron's seat. But really, Pat is the best in the business, and whomever they get is only going to do better along side of him.
Thanks Chris -
ReplyDeleteI'll take a mediocre staff this year, if we can build something special for the next few years.
As for Grace, I think he's a good fit, along with Sutcliffe, Moreland (loved his work on the radio this year) or Steve Stone. I heard today that Ronnie Woo-Woo is now in the mix...
I like it, interested to hear your thoughts on the set-up and closers.
ReplyDeleteBig J
Thanks Big J-
ReplyDeleteWhen you making your comeback?
I totally agree. Other than going out and buying a new staff every year like the Yankees and Phillies -- which I would say is going a long ways to ruining the game -- growing a staff in house is by far the best way to have a long term solid rotation.
ReplyDeleteI just played out a scenario where Pat Hughes tried to call a play with "woo -- go -- woo -- Cubbies" interjected throughout... Even the remarkably humble Pat Hughes would have a hard time putting up with that for very long.
Man, you'd think that with nine candidates, you could rustle up a respectable top four or five, but there's more potential than proof among that lot.
ReplyDeleteAfter Demp and Z, Gorzo has to get a slot just because he's the only lefty. Sean Marshall has to stay in the pen, so unless a trade is made, Gorzo is safe. Wells and Silva are then the clubhouse leaders for the fourth and fifth spots. Only a terrible spring would bounce either from the job.
I don't know what the situation is with Coleman's options, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts the season at Iowa so he can continue starting, and then brought up for injury or spot-starts.
Cashner is the wildcard, so he better be ready for anything. Groomed as a closer, perhaps?
Regarding a replacement for Santo, I know that Dave Otto isn't the sexiest pick of the guys we know, but he's my favorite. He complements Pat Hughes remarkably well. Their timing is impeccable, and their professionalism and knowledge open the door for some special calls. While I hope that WGN Radio appeases the purists like me that want solid radio, I fear that they'll cater to the dreamers that would prefer a Randy Hundley, for example, over Otto, Keith Moreland or even a Todd Hollandsworth. Too many times when I was listening to the 'casts, I'd want Santo to stop talking so Hughes could get on with his job. Hughes was more of a babysitter and accidental enabler for Santo; he had to be. I loved Hughes when he worked in Milwaukee, but he simply hasn't had the opportunity for full freedom. He's so much better than the situation in which he's worked since coming aboard. I know is sacrilege to say it, but I'm really looking forward to a new team in 2011.
I don't know if he's available or if he's been mentioned for the gig, but Doug Glanville is my darkhorse candidate for the radio gig. If you've never read his stuff, Google it. It's outstanding. He's a former Cub and already lives in Chicago.
Keep up the great work, Mike!
MIke, are you as bummed as I am to see D-Lee's stock drop so low as to garner a contract with the Oriels?
ReplyDelete